Rockstarbrother’s Top 25 – Week 5 2009
Guest blogger: Nick Kutcher who is @rockstarbrother on Twitter
To rank or not to rank pre-season college football, that is the question!
Since the birth of the BCS; coaches, fans, and players have been contemplating the importance of preseason rankings. It does not matter! Being an athlete, I can tell you from experience that every season teams change, some for the better, and some for the worse, no matter who the team is. I came from Michigan and I always saw the Big Ten as the best. Now I live in Oregon, and watch the Pac 10 teams like USC, Oregon, and Cal rock college football. And I follow SEC teams like Florida and Georgia.
The question that everyone needs to be asking and talking about is, “Why does the NCAA allow this BCS ranking to continue?” I suspect the answer is television ratings, because it brings in a massive amount of money each game year after year. For example, Utah has been undefeated twice in the last four years. Unfortunately, pre-season rankings locked them out of the right to play in the National Championship.
Why would the USA Today rank California above Oregon? I hope the BCS rankings aren’t as disappointing. The AP Poll seemed to understand. Oregon just beat California by over thirty points! California did not even score a single touchdown against Oregon! California came in as the better ranked team but they failed to even get inside the Oregon 20 yard line.
So, for the world’s sake, here is The Rockstarbrother’s Top 25 as of 9/29/09 is:
RK/ Team/ Record/ PTS
1. Alabama 4-0 1490
2. Texas 4-0 1420
3. Florida 4-0 1400
4. LSU 4-0 1225
5. Boise State 4-0 1203
6. Cincinnati 4-0 1190
7. Iowa 4-0 998
8. TCU 3-0 979
9. Oklahoma 2-1 957
10. Ohio State 3-1 946
11. Virginia Tech 3-1 896
12. Houston 3-0 844
13. USC 3-1 788
14. Michigan 4-0 591
15. Oregon 3-1 470
16. Oklahoma State 3-1 462
17. Kansas 4-0 452
18. Georgia 3-1 418
19. Miami(FL) 2-1 400
20. Penn State 3-1 349
21. BYU 3-1 340
22. Nebraska 3-1 271
23. Mississippi 2-1 340
24. Georgia Tech 3-1 206
25. Missouri 4-0 185
And for my game picks of the week:
1. Alabama wins by 21
2. Texas bye week
3. Florida bye week
4. LSU wins by 7
5. Boise State wins by 42
6. Cincinnati wins by 35
7. Iowa wins by 21
8. TCU wins by 28
9. Oklahoma loses to Miami by 3 (Game of the week)
10. Ohio State wins by 21
11. VTU wins by 28
12. Houston wins by 21
13. USC beats CAL by 21
14. Michigan beats MSU by 14 (sad but true sorry Spartans)
15. Oregon wins by 42
16. Oklahoma State bye week
17. Kansas bye week
18. Georgia loses to LSU by 7
19. Miami(FL) wins by 3
20. Penn State wins by 28
21. BYU wins by 21
22. Nebraska bye week
23. Mississippi wins by 14
24. Georgia Tech wins by 21
25. Missouri bye week
I’m twitter @rockstarbrother
Comments
Way Cool…Thank you for the predictions! Excellent!
I share your feelings that the PreSeason Rankings are a good guess at best, and should NOT impact the actual season rankings. If TV needs them to ‘hype’ some early season games for the purpose of viewership, fine – but the PSR’s should not be weighted into the initial BCS rankings.
What is needed is a division 1 college football playoff. But as long as the BCS system persists, they need a better way of determining their rankings.
The BCS has big powerful computers, so determine team rankings based on their won/loss record after game 5 of the current season, weighted by the team strength component of the teams they’ve played.
A team’s strength component would be determined by computing, then totaling, strength values for the returning INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS for each team based on that player’s performance in prior seasons, weighted by the strength of the players against which that player competed in his prior college year – with a factor for the ongoing success of his team in the past 10 years, and with personal injuries considered.
First year players are not considered in a team’s strength component, given they are unknown entities.
If that sounds confusing or complex, it is certainly more logical than including a team’s rankings in the “popularity polls” (AP, Coaches, etc.) the BCS currently uses to determine the merits and worth of a team with regard to BCS bowls and the national championship game.
What it really points back to is the URGENT NEED for a college football division championship playoff, the format of which to be prudently and effectively determined.
As to current rankings — Cal deserves a top 20 ranking, but lower than the Ducks, who are properly positioned at 15/16 right now. Utah deserves a top 25 ranking, but also lower than the Ducks. Remember, the Ducks were in jeopardy of losing to Utah until the very last play of the game, when Utah just missed a two point conversion by inches that would have given them the win.
Three predictions for this weekend impacting the current AP top 10. First, Cal will beat USC, Georgia will beat LSU, and Miami will beat Oklahoma.
As an aside, I would love to think Oregon will win by 42, but I believe it will be a difficult 10 point victory for the Ducks. Jeremiah Masoli has not played his best in the rain, and WASU is better than their record — and they are hungry.
This is all just MHO!
As 99.9999999% of true college football fans agree, the BCS system is a joke. To answer the question below, yes, it is all about money and TV stations. They have an existing contract in place until 2014, so nothing we can do as of now. The true question should be: Can the BSC, under it’s current contract, “adjust” the rankings to allow some sort of playoff system. We’re stuck with the BSC…I hate it, but it’s reality. How could we take the BSC rankings and implement a playoff? Would it be top east teams vs. top west teams? Conference champions vs. conference champions?
I think we need to accept the stupid situation that we’re in (with the BCS) and try to work out an “adjustment” which would allow the BSC bowl games to continue but allow some sort of bracket to determine which teams play in which bowl games. I also VERY strongly believe that human beings should have the vast majority of power in the ranking system…and minimize what the computers tell us. To me, the computer thing is a joke. Obviously our hands are tied for a few years, but maybe it’s possible to talk about an adjustment which would begin to lead college football on the right path?
From Rockstarbrothers Top twenty five | The life of Nick Kutcher on October 5th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
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